Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0046Z from Region 2567 (N05W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 21/1439Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 21/1915Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 35/30/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 100
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 009/010-008/008-007/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10