Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1153Z from Region 2565 (N06W35). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 19/1642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7070 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 101
Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 19 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 010/012-013/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 35/30/35
Major-severe storm 30/30/30