Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 12/2155Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4515 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 097
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 094/094/092
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 014/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/20