Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 11/0233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4449 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 095
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 012/012-012/015-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30