Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/1607Z from Region 2564 (N09E63). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 09/1439Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3008 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jul, 12 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 092
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 015/016-015/020-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/30