Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/0756Z from Region 2561 (S16W45). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 07/1751Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 07/1852Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 083
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 084/085/086
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 089

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 019/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 013/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/25/25