Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 02/2051Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 287 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 071
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 089

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 020/025-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/15/05
Minor Storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 55/20/05