Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 27/2228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2164 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 073
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 070/070/075
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 016/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 006/005-012/015-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/15
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/35/25
Major-severe storm 05/40/20