Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 24/2152Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/2057Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1926 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jun, 28 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 077
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/05