Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 23/2053Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 22/2206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 23/1530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jun, 26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 078
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 080/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/008-012/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/35/25
Major-severe storm 20/40/20