Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 17/1157Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/0537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/0438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 442 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 087
Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 087/087/085
90 Day Mean 17 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10