Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 14/1743Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 14/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 581 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 088
Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 14 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 012/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 018/012-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/25
Minor Storm 20/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/35/35