Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 694 km/s at 06/0322Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/0006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 801 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jun 079
Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 06 Jun 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 023/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 021/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 009/010-005/006-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/15/10