Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/0737Z from Region 2550 (N15W31). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day

one (31 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 601 km/s at 30/0451Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/2318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1088 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 086
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 30 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 013/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15