Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 27/2055Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/1646Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1447Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 531 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 May), quiet to active levels on day two (29 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 May).

III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 090
Predicted 28 May-30 May 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 27 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 007/008-013/015-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/55