Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1336Z from Region 2548 (N13W36). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (27 May, 28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (29 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/2045Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 26/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 579 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 May, 29 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 May).

III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 092
Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/085/090
90 Day Mean 26 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 009/012-007/008-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/20/35