Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27 May, 28 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 25/0013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 552 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 May).

III. Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 094
Predicted 26 May-28 May 095/090/085
90 Day Mean 25 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 009/012-011/014-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/40/25