Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 9 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 09/0932Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16412 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 May), quiet to active levels on day two (11 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 May).

III. Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 089
Predicted 10 May-12 May 090/090/092
90 Day Mean 09 May 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 032/060
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 021/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 015/022-013/014-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/45/30