Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 08/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 08/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 May).

III. Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 May 084
Predicted 09 May-11 May 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 08 May 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May 039/065
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 022/032-018/025-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/35
Minor Storm 30/30/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/65/45