Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/0922Z from Region 2539 (N16E22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 May, 03 May, 04 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 01/1656Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1701Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1352Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 May, 04 May).

III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 May 092
Predicted 02 May-04 May 090/095/105
90 Day Mean 01 May 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/10