Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1047Z from Region 2539 (N17E38). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 30/2057Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1725Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 292 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 May) and quiet levels on day three (03 May).

III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 094
Predicted 01 May-03 May 092/090/095
90 Day Mean 30 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 013/015-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10