Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 29/0106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/1903Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 353 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 May).

III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 092
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 090/087/085
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 018/025-017/020-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/30