Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 27/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 27/0350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 349 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 093
Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 095/093/093
90 Day Mean 27 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 009/008-012/014-018/026

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/60/55