Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/1652Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 06/1146Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0634Z. Electrons greater that 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2100 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 087
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 090/092/095
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/014-010/012-009/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/45/25