Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 31/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/1645Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 585 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (02 Apr), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (03 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 082
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 082/084/084
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 022/035-015/018-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/20
Minor Storm 25/25/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/55/25