Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 29/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 251 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 088
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 009/008-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/45