Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 12 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 696 km/s at 12/0551Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/2303Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 989 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (15 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 106
Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 105/100/105
90 Day Mean 12 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 010/012-007/008-007/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan-15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/20