Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 04/0706Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 04/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7407 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 095
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 008/008-013/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor Storm 05/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/60/60