Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 December 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 29/1032Z from Region 2473 (S21W33). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 29/0217Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2023Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2442 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (30 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 105
Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 29 Dec 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 018/040-022/028-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec-01 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/45/30
Minor Storm 35/30/15
Major-severe storm 50/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/15
Minor Storm 10/20/30
Major-severe storm 90/70/45
