Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0628Z from Region 2458 (N09W79). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 466 km/s at 03/0255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1537 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 095
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 007/008-007/008-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/45