Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/0810Z from Region 2458 (N09W51). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (04 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 588 km/s at 01/1422Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 095
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 009/008-006/005-007/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/10/20