Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 471 km/s at 29/2100Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1754Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 096
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 010/012-020/025-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/40