Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 594 km/s at 07/2151Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 08/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 800 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Sep, 11 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 01/01/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 084
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 027/045
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 018/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 011/012-006/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/35