Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 578 km/s at 04/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3188 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 085
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/25