Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/1137Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at 03/1143Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1813Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 578 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 087
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/008-008/010-008/009

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/30