Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 429 km/s at 02/1710Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2791 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 088
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 011/012-008/009-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/25