Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/1236Z from Region 2401 (S11E22). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550 km/s at 15/1433Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 15/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 15/1008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 089
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 027/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/020-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 25/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/20