Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 07/1941Z from Region 2396 (S17E02). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (08 Aug) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 597 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1851 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (10 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M 40/55/55
Class X 05/10/10
Proton 01/01/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 122
Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 07 Aug 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 013/015-015/019-018/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/55/50