Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 460 km/s at 05/1445Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1206 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 112
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/010-018/023-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/50/35
Minor Storm 05/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/70/50