Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 445 km/s at 30/2030Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 30/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 824 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 102
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 016/018-020/024-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/55/40