Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 30 June 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1243Z from Region 2376 (N13E57). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 430 km/s at 30/0645Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9667 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           30 Jun 101

Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 105/110/115

90 Day Mean        30 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/10/10

Minor Storm           05/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/20

Minor Storm           30/20/20

Major-severe storm    25/10/10