Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1219Z from Region 2371 (N12W28). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 1054 km/s at 23/1051Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 22/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -25 nT at 23/0135Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 529 pfu at 22/2130Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit were contaminated by proton flux and therefore unreliable.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Jun), minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (26 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 99/99/90
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 116
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 057/074
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 044/083
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 028/040-048/080-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
