Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 22/1823Z from Region 2371 (N13W14). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 737 km/s at 22/1830Z. Total IMF reached 42 nT at 22/2000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -39 nT at 22/1850Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066 pfu at 22/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 99/99/99
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 135
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 0NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 035/054
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 024/040-014/020-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
