Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/0648Z from Region 2371 (N13E14). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at 20/1537Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 20/1015Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 20/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 70/70/60
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 40/40/40
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 135
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 007/008-019/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
