Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 19/0927Z from Region 2371 (N13E27). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 444 km/s at 18/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0948Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at 18/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1057 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (22 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 70/70/60
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 40/40/40
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 137
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 006/005-007/008-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
