Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/0406Z from Region 2371 (N11E66). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 625 km/s at 16/1909Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/1814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0706Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3261 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M 30/25/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 136
Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 16 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
