Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/0729Z from Region 2360 (N15W82). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Jun, 15 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 579 km/s at 12/2231Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 30/25/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 136
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 135/126/124
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 013/016-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
