Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 12/0206Z from Region 2360 (N15W68). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 557 km/s at 11/2131Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1451Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8585 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun), unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M 30/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 137
Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 12 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 012/015-013/016-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
