Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0855Z from Region 2367 (S19E70). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1420Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6029 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (13 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (14 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 140
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 015/020-011/015-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
