Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 09/0353Z from Region 2360 (N15W31). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 705 km/s at 09/0324Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1380 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 137
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 022/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 012/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
